This week covers some of the less intensive business applications such as using statistical analysis to develop demand forecasts based on historical data. The questions below address some of the finer points of forecasting, as well as offer you a chance to reflect on the material covered in the course.

Select any one of the following starter bullet point sections. Review the important themes within the sub questions of each bullet point. The sub questions are designed to get you thinking about some of the important issues. Your response should provide a succinct synthesis of the key themes in a way that articulates a clear point, position, or conclusion supported by research. Select a different bullet point section than what your classmates have already posted so that we can engage several discussions on relevant topics. If all of the bullet points have been addressed, then you may begin to re-use the bullet points with the expectation that varied responses continue.

• As a marketing analyst, you are responsible for estimating the level of sales associated with different marketing mix allocation scenarios. You have historical sales data, as well as promotional response data, for each of the elements of the marketing mix.
  • Describe the differences between the forecasting methods that can be used.
  • Evaluate the forecasting methods in relation to the given scenario.
  • Choose a forecasting method and justify your choice. If you make any assumptions, state them explicitly. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.
• In general, short-term forecasts are more accurate than long-term forecasts. The same is true for forecasts where cyclical or seasonal factors are fairly well defined and repeatable.
  • Describe the factors that influence the reliability of time-series forecasts.
  • Evaluate the circumstances that would cause a time-series model to offer a fairly reliable forecast.
  • Locate information about a company that uses one of the types of time-series models to forecast demand and describe both the organization and the type of product(s) that they use time-series models to forecast.
  • Explain why the time-series model that is currently being used is the most reasonable model for the company to use or describe an alternate time-series model that would be more appropriate for the company to use.
  • If you suggest a change in the time-series model being used by the company, predict how the company you have chosen will improve because of that specific time-series model. Support your discussion with relevant examples, research, and rationale.
• Experience teaches us that the bulk of the technical material covered in this course will, unfortunately, be forgotten shortly thereafter. If you were to commit just three concepts you have learned in this course to your long-term memory, which concepts would you select and why?
  • Evaluate the applicability of each of the concepts that you’ve selected to a business environment in which you have worked in the past (or with which you might be familiar).
  • Describe how you would apply each of the concepts. Be specific.
  • Explain your goal in applying each concept to the environment that you have described.

The final paragraph (three or four sentences) of your initial post should summarize the one or two key points that you are making in your initial response.

Submission Detail:

• Your posting should be the equivalent of 1 to 2 single-spaced pages (500–1000 words) in length.

 

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Ethics Assignment – 20% of Your Grade

This assignment should be submitted to the appropriate ‘Assignment Submission Folder’ (under the ‘Activities’ link).

REQUIRED PAPER FORMAT:

Times New Roman, 12 point font

Double spaced, with 1 inch margins

5 page minimum

Use references to support your responses to the below   

In this case, incentives may create an ethical dilemma.

1.  First, describe the potential ethical dilemma presented in this case.

2.  Who does the ethical dilemma impact?

3.  If this were you, what are some alternatives that you have?

4.  What action would you choose?

5.  What could the company do to keep this from occurring in the future?

You will be evaluated in accordance with the grading rubric provided at the end of this document. Your case will be automatically evaluated by Turnitin.com

 

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Develop a current state value stream map for a service of your choice at your organization. Reflect on the challenges encountered when developing the value stream map. Integrate into your discussion concepts, programs, and models from prior weeks as appropriate.

 

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For the first essay, you must choose one of the short stories provided in the short story readings folder. Focus on either setting, point of view, or character development.

This essay is ANALYTICAL. IT IS NOT A SUMMARY. Don’t retell the story; assume your reader has read it. Check your calendar for the due date!  Your essay should have the following components:

Your essay must have these components: (1) an introduction, (2) body, (3) conclusion, (4) thesis statement, (5) good development, (6) topic sentences, and (7) transition words. Your paper must be double-spaced, two full pages (about 600 words), and written in 12 point font. You must cite your main source (primary source), incorporate and cite 1 secondary source from the library databases, and adhere to MLA style formatting.

Your first analytical essay is based on one of the short stories listed in the Short Story Readings Folder. You’ll need to analyze setting, point of view, and/or character development.  A few words from the assigned topics may be tweaked. Just make sure you show the teacher your changes. Your essay must have these components: (1) an introduction, (2) body, (3) conclusion, (4) thesis statement, (5) good development, (6) topic sentences, and (7) transition words. Your paper must be double-spaced, two full pages (about 600 words), and written in 12 point font. You must cite your main source (primary source), and adhere to MLA style formatting. You must incorporate a minimum of ONE outside source. You similarity score on Turn-It-In should not be higher than 30%. 

You may also use any symbolism or literary dictionary, or The Literary Reference Center in Galileo to help you gain a deeper meaning of the text.

Sample thesis statements:

1. In “Title,” the symbols in the setting are used to reveal A, B, and C.

2. In “Title” the setting is used to reflect the characters.

3. In “Title,” the point of view is used to display A’s character.

4. In (title of work), (author) uses (literary device) to (accomplish, develop, illustrate, strengthen) (element of work).

25 In (title of work), (author) uses (one aspect) to (define, strengthen, illustrate) the (element of work).

GUIDELINES

Introduction (at least 5-6 sentences)

___Your introduction should be about five to six sentences long (including your thesis).

___Preferably, your thesis should have three clear points. You may have a two-point thesis, but you still need to have three body paragraphs.

___Mention the name of the author and the author’s work.

Body Paragraphs (at least 9-10 sentences)

A standard essay has three body paragraphs. YOU MUST ANALYZE SOMETHING!!DON’T SUMMARIZE!!

___Each body paragraph should start with a transition word and have a topic sentence. Most paragraphs are about nine-10 lines long.

___ All body paragraphs should have well-developed examples. Write precise, thorough examples to prove your thesis.

___Transition words (meanwhile, furthermore, therefore, finally, first, second, in conclusion)

___Topic sentences

___ You must have at least one in-text citation per body paragraph (no more than two in-text citations per body paragraph, including blended or direct with signal phrases, quotation marks, and parentheticals).

Conclusion (at 5-6 sentences)

___Your conclusion should restate the main idea of your essay in an interesting way.

  Grammar and Mechanics

___ No glaring grammar mistakes (fragments, agreement issues, verb tense shifts, run-ons, comma splices, wordiness, awkward sentence structures, no comma errors or punctuation errors, misspelled, no grammar and mechanics related errors)

___ Mature vocabulary, diction, and syntax are evident.

___ Sentence structure shows control and some variety

Audience and Tone

___ Academic papers require the use of formal language.

___ Avoid slang language (no text message language).

___Use the third person point of view (he, she, one, a person, etc.), not the first person point of view (I), or the second person point of view (you).

Works Cited Page

___You must have a works cited page.

NOTE:

Be aware that when you submit your essay to Turn-It-In, your document will be automatically checked for plagiarism. You have access to the originality reports that Turn-It-In generates for your papers, so use them to your advantage. If a report shows issues with plagiarism, you need to correct and resubmit your work before the assignment deadline.

 – YOU MUST DO RESEARCH to aid you in writing this assignment, and you must use proper MLA documentation that accurately credits your sources. You CANNOT recycle a paper from a previous class and submit it for credit. Each paper must be a newly written work. Please review the college’s plagiarism policies.

-For this assignment, a secondary source is one that discusses or analyzes your chosen story. Many academic journals contain articles that discuss short stories. You must locate your secondary sources from the library databases (such as Gale Literary Databases, Academic Search Complete, Literature Resource Center, Gale Virtual Reference Library).

Secondary sources such as Shmoop, Cliff’s Notes, SparkNotes, enotes.com, bookrags.com, 123helpme.com, Wiki anything, and exampleessays.com ARE UNACCEPTABLE. Your secondary source must come from an academic journal or published book.

NOTES AND REMINDERS:

-The turn-it-in drop box is set up to allow you to rewrite over the submissions as many times as you need to prior to the drop box close date/time to allow you to make revisions after reviewing the results it provides. If you submit an essay with plagiarism in it, your instructor will determine the consequences, which could be as much as a 0 on the assignment or dismissal from the course.

 -Primary Source:  The piece of literaure in the anthology textbook you are analyzing is your primary source.

-Secondary Sources:  The literary criticism found in the Literary Reference Center in GALILEO is the secondary source.  1 secondary source is the minimum required for this assignment.

– Use MLA FORMAT (Times New Roman 12; double spaced; 1 inch margin; heading; header with last name page number inserted using header function).

– You must use quotations from both the literature selection you are analyzing AND from one of your two secondary sources (minimum). Use correct in-text formatting. Remember that quotations must connect to your words and cannot stand alone in the essay.

– When quoting from a story, you use the author and page number in the parentheses. When quoting poetry, you must use the space/space format between lines of the poem and put the line number in the parentheses. 

 

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Select a topic related to your profession (or future profession).

Examine several (this means more than one!) websites on this topic (if you aren’t sure about the difference between a website and a web page or something else, please see the info on websites in the content section).

In written or oral format*, using examples and specific information, 

explain why these websites are or are not appropriate for college level student research or for class use (refer back to the information in the library tutorials!)

explain the value (or lack thereof) of the websites for use in your professional work.

describe any concerns you have about the websites’ reliability/validity and give examples for why you have those concerns. If you don’t have any, explain why.

The paper should:

• Follow APA format (see your style manual)
• Include a cover page and reference page (not included in the page count). The reference page should contain hyperlinks to the websites’ homepage.
• Be well written and include proper use of grammar and spelling. 

If you need assistance with writing, I encourage you to use the writing tutors in the CFAA

*Approximately 1-2 pages of written work or the equivalent if doing an oral presentation.

If you do an oral presentation, please use a universal audio file format (like an mp3). Submitting a file format I can’t open doesn’t count as submitting and could result in deductions for late submission or a zero if the file isn’t submitted by the grace period.

 

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